Building on Ben Bernanke’s widely used recession probability model, we invented a better model using exactly the same ...
Real economic growth in the United States contracted 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025. Although that's an initial estimate, that's a remarkable development because it comes in the middle of a period ...
The stock market has been on a wild ride over the past several weeks. After plunging by nearly 20% between February and April, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has rallied by more than 13% in the past ...
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JPMorgan trimmed its forecast for the probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession this year after President Donald Trump reached a deal to temporarily lower the tariffs he imposed on imported ...
The Israel-Iran conflict raises concerns over a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs and other banks warn of recession risks if global oil supply is disrupted. Higher oil prices ...